Ethiopia’s Tigray region faces renewed conflict risks following a recent coup amid ongoing tensions between the TPLF factions and escalating disputes with Eritrea. The aftermath of the previous war has left deep scars, with unresolved issues fueling instability. Leaders express fears of imminent violence, and regional tensions could spiral into an interstate conflict if not addressed swiftly.
The ongoing instability in Ethiopia’s Tigray region threatens to plunge the area into renewed conflict. Aregawi, a Tigrayan resident who previously engaged in the frontline during the 2020 war, expressed concerns that, “It seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable.” The previous conflict concluded in 2022, resulting in catastrophic losses, including approximately 600,000 deaths and substantial violence against women, as reported by a British Medical Journal study.
Despite a ceasefire, most provisions remain unfulfilled—including the return of nearly one million internally displaced individuals—which has intensified divisions within the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). This month, tensions escalated following interim president Getachew Reda’s attempt to dismiss three senior military leaders amid accusations of a coup attempt.
A rival faction, led by TPLF chair Debretsion Gebremichael, appears to have successfully executed a coup, claiming significant government positions in Mekelle, the regional capital. Getachew has since fled to Addis Ababa, and recent skirmishes have resulted in casualties, highlighting the precarious security situation. Residents expressed their fears of impending conflict, with many planning to flee to neighboring countries, as armed groups patrol the streets.
Compounding these crises, Ethiopia and Eritrea are experiencing heightened tensions. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aspirations to regain access to the Red Sea after Eritrea’s secession in 1993 have fueled disputes. Abiy considers this access “existential” for Ethiopia, seeking control over the port of Assab. Eritrea’s military mobilization and support for anti-government forces exacerbates the tension.
Ethiopia’s military buildup along the Eritrean border reflects the growing unease, with state media promoting nationalist sentiments. Tigray’s Vice-President, Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae, cautioned that conflict could erupt without warning. Experts Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos warned current conditions resemble “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war.”
While Abiy expressed a preference for dialogue instead of military action to regain port access, his lack of intervention to support Getachew may signal a strategic retreat, allowing new Tigray leadership to solidify power. Furthermore, the desire to reclaim contested western Tigray from Amhara forces poses additional risks for future conflicts, as analyst Ahmed Soliman noted that the evolving dynamics in Tigray will be critical in determining whether peace can be maintained.
The situation in Tigray exemplifies the fragile state of peace in Ethiopia, threatening to ignite a new conflict both internally and between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Critical factors include the unresolved issues from previous hostilities, shifting allegiances within Tigray’s ruling factions, and tensions surrounding Eritrea’s strategic significance. The prospective outcomes will rely upon discussions among regional leaders and the military responses from both countries, underscoring the urgent need for diplomatic engagement and conflict resolution strategies.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
