Ethiopia is experiencing severe political, ethnic, and economic crises post-civil war, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed facing resistance from various ethnic groups. His strategies to consolidate power and seek coastal access heighten regional tensions. Without effective diplomacy, the country’s stability is at risk, potentially leading to broader conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia is currently in a critical political and societal crisis characterized by ethnic tensions, economic troubles, and growing instability. The civil war in the Tigray region from 2020 to 2022 has left the nation weary and uncertain. Although the Pretoria peace agreement provided a temporary respite, deep-seated divisions between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) persist.
The agreement has led to a split within the TPLF itself, where some factions favor cooperation with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while others staunchly resist his leadership. The Prime Minister has attempted to leverage these internal divisions to strengthen his own position, although this tactic poses significant risks, increasing the likelihood of renewed conflict in Tigray and further destabilizing the nation.
In addition, Abiy Ahmed faces rising animosity from the Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group. Many Amhara militias fought alongside the government during the Tigray conflict, viewing themselves as a vital component of Abiy’s strategy. However, after the peace agreement, many in the Amhara community felt betrayed as the government began disarming their forces and failing to resolve ongoing land disputes, particularly regarding the Wolkait and Raya territories.
Since 2023, a burgeoning resistance movement has emerged in Amhara, marked by armed groups engaging in confrontations with the Ethiopian military. Despite the declaration of a state of emergency and troop deployments, resistance continues, as Amhara elites accuse Abiy of furthering an agenda that favors his own ethnic group, the Oromo, at their expense.
Simultaneously, Abiy Ahmed is encountering substantial pushback in his home region of Oromia, where disappointment is widespread among the Oromo who initially supported his rise to power. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has been engaged in guerrilla warfare against government forces, alleging neglect of Oromo interests. The situation in Oromia is critical, as the ongoing violence threatens the Prime Minister’s political foundation, intensifying humanitarian issues for civilians caught in the conflict.
Moreover, Ethiopia grapples with severe economic challenges, including rampant inflation, rising unemployment, and the aftermath of past conflicts. The soaring prices of essential commodities have made daily sustenance increasingly unaffordable for many, particularly the youth, who face employment difficulties. The government must undertake challenging economic reforms to prevent a financial crisis.
Compounded by these internal crises, pressures for access to the sea loom large in Ethiopia’s geopolitical strategy. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, relying heavily on Djibouti for trade. Rather than pursuing diplomatic avenues for cooperation with neighboring coastal nations, Abiy has amplified rhetoric regarding historical claims to coastal access.
This quest is not new, as previous Ethiopian leaders have invoked similar claims to justify expansionist policies. Abiy reflects a historical pattern, using the desire for coastline access as a means to distract from domestic challenges. His recent emphasis on Ethiopia’s need for coastal access disregards the necessity of neighboring countries’ consent for such matters.
On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, enabling Ethiopia strategic access to the Red Sea for 50 years. This agreement elicited immediate backlash from Somalia, which sees Somaliland as part of its territory, escalating diplomatic tensions and stirring concerns of regional destabilization.
Moreover, tensions rise with Eritrea as Ethiopia reportedly amasses troops along their shared border, further escalating fears of conflict. Historical animosities from the 1998–2000 border war have resurfaced, and the fragile peace established in 2018 threatens to be undermined by Abiy’s ambitions, potentially leading to a wider regional conflict involving neighboring states.
The Horn of Africa remains one of the globe’s most turbulent regions. A military confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could create a ripple effect, destabilizing Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan, with global implications as external powers may intervene based on their interests. This situation portends dire humanitarian consequences, with millions potentially displaced amid rising poverty and hunger.
It remains uncertain whether Abiy Ahmed will pursue his geopolitical goals through diplomatic channels rather than force, yet one fact is evident: absent a viable diplomatic resolution, the Horn of Africa teeters on the brink of a catastrophic war that could have lasting repercussions for the region and beyond. The international community faces an urgent imperative to mitigate tensions before a future crisis escalates.
In summary, Ethiopia currently faces a precarious situation due to deep ethnic divisions, political unrest, and an economic crisis exacerbated by past conflicts. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s strategies to consolidate power may further destabilize the nation, especially with growing resistance from both the Amhara and Oromo regions. Additionally, geopolitical tensions concerning access to the sea and agreements with Somaliland threaten regional stability. Without a sustainable diplomatic approach, Ethiopia risks sliding into conflict, affecting not just its borders but the entire Horn of Africa.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
