China has failed to meet its 2024 carbon intensity target, achieving only a 3.4% reduction instead of the 3.9% aimed for. This shortfall, coupled with overall increasing emissions, raises doubts about its carbon neutrality goals. Significant structural changes and effective policy reforms will be crucial for achieving intended climate targets.
China’s recent shortfall in achieving its carbon intensity target for 2024 has raised concerns regarding its commitment to carbon neutrality amid increasing global climate challenges. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity, falling short of the 3.9 percent target set by Beijing. Additionally, there is a lack of progress towards the longer-term goal of an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity between 2020 and 2025, as outlined in the Chinese Communist Party’s five-year plan.
President Xi Jinping’s “dual targets” include reaching peak emissions by the end of the decade and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China holds a pivotal position as the world’s leading polluter, contributing approximately 30 percent of global emissions, while simultaneously being a leader in renewable energy investments. The implications of China’s emission targets significantly affect the international community’s objective to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The year 2024 marked a troubling historical juncture, as it was the first to breach this critical temperature threshold, thereby casting doubt on long-term climate goals. Carbon intensity serves as a crucial indicator of China’s decarbonisation process, despite its economy’s growth. Senior energy analyst Muyi Yang commented that “the reduction in emissions relative to that growth wasn’t as rapid as intended,” highlighting the struggle to balance economic recovery post-COVID-19 with declining emissions.
China’s economy has shown a growth rate of 5 percent in 2024, but electricity demand surged by 6.8 percent year-on-year, resulting in a slight increase in carbon emissions by 0.8 percent. Severe heatwaves have exacerbated the situation, disrupting hydropower generation and necessitating a temporary reliance on coal to meet energy needs. Nevertheless, China has achieved significant advancements in renewable energy, meeting 14.5 percent of total energy demand with wind and solar, alongside 13.4 percent from hydropower.
According to Eric Fishman, a senior manager at the Lantau Group, renewable energy contributed significantly to 75 percent of the increase in energy demand, reflecting a shift towards cleaner energy sources. Much of this growth results from substantial government backing and an emphasis on ecological civilization enshrined in Xi Jinping Thought. In 2021, initiatives to reduce high-energy consumption projects and implement the largest carbon trading market were also launched, propelling the nation towards green technologies.
Analyst Anika Patel noted that China is transitioning from being the “factory of the world” focused on traditional low-value products to pursuing green growth in sectors like solar power and electric vehicles. This transition is significant, as the CCP is expected to announce new carbon emissions targets for 2026 to 2030, which will guide future public and private sector directions.
Although Yao Zhe of Greenpeace East Asia expressed optimism about reaching peak carbon before 2030, he cautioned that significant structural changes will be necessary to achieve carbon neutrality. The imperative lies in effective timely reforms to ensure a successful transition to a sustainable energy economy.
In summary, China’s recent failure to meet its emissions targets raises significant concerns about the country’s long-term carbon neutrality goals and its overall impact on global climate efforts. Despite advancements in renewable energy, the reliance on coal and increasing carbon emissions pose substantial challenges. Moving forward, decisive actions and structural reforms will be essential for China to align its economic ambitions with its environmental responsibilities and successfully navigate towards a sustainable future.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
