China has fallen short of its carbon emissions target for 2024, decreasing by only 3.4 percent against a goal of 3.9 percent. This sets back its long-term aims of reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent by 2025 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Enhanced scrutiny of China’s dual role as a top polluter and renewable energy leader is essential, particularly given its impact on global climate challenges.
China’s recent shortfall in its carbon emissions target has raised significant concerns about its capacity to achieve carbon neutrality, which is vital for global climate initiatives. In 2024, China’s carbon intensity decreased by only 3.4 percent, falling short of the 3.9 percent target set by the National Bureau of Statistics. This also indicates inadequate progress towards reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 to 2025, as outlined in the Communist Party’s five-year plan.
President Xi Jinping has two primary targets: peak emissions by the end of the decade and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s role is increasingly scrutinized due to its standing as the world’s largest emitter, contributing around 30 percent of global emissions while also being a leader in renewable energy investments. The success of China in meeting these targets is critical for maintaining the average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a benchmark vital for preventing catastrophic climate outcomes.
With 2024 marking a historic breach of temperature limits, the long-term stability of keeping below the 1.5C threshold is in jeopardy. Although carbon intensity is one of several metrics employed to measure emissions, it serves as a useful indicator of decarbonization across China’s economy, as noted by Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember. He highlighted that while the economy grew by 5 percent, electricity demand surged by 6.8 percent, driving a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percent in carbon emissions.
Record heatwaves have further complicated China’s emission reduction efforts, disrupting hydropower production and leading to increased coal utilization to meet energy needs. Nonetheless, significant strides in renewable energy have occurred, with 14.5 percent of total energy demand satisfied by wind and solar power and an additional 13.4 percent from hydropower in 2024. This development, accounting for approximately 75 percent of the energy demand growth, is comparable to Germany’s total energy consumption.
Government initiatives have played a critical role in fostering this growth. The governing ideology, Xi Jinping Thought, emphasizes the importance of an “ecological civilization”. In 2021, Xi announced measures against high-emission projects that did not meet regulatory standards. During the same year, China established the world’s largest carbon trading scheme, allowing firms to trade unused emissions allowances.
Recent calls from Xi for a transition towards innovative manufacturing underline China’s shift from traditional, lower-value production to embracing sustainable sectors like solar energy, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries. The Communist Party will announce new emissions targets for 2026-2030 as part of its upcoming five-year plan, which is expected to shape public and private sector policies.
Experts express optimism that China can reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 but caution that fully transitioning away from coal remains uncertain. Yao Zhe from Greenpeace emphasizes the need for substantial structural changes in China’s energy framework to achieve carbon neutrality, noting that crucial reforms may be postponed and need to commence promptly after reaching peak emissions.
In conclusion, China’s recent failure to meet its emissions goals underscores significant challenges in its quest for carbon neutrality. The disconnect between economic growth and emissions reduction highlights the urgency of structural changes within its energy sector. Although there have been notable advancements in renewable energy, the trajectory of China’s carbon footprint remains critical not only for national policy but also for global climate objectives.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
