Al-Shabab militia shows signs of resurgence in Somalia, regaining control in key regions, including near the capital. Despite the government’s military efforts, it faces challenges from reduced international support. While analysts express concern over security stability, some argue that Al-Shabab’s advances are opportunistic rather than indicative of an imminent threat to Mogadishu.
The Al-Shabab militia in Somalia exhibits signs of resurgence, recently gaining ground in key regions and narrowly escaping an assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Following a period of military setbacks in 2022 and 2023, analysts suggest that the previous gains against Al-Shabab are being undone amidst diminishing support from the United States and the African Union.
Al-Shabab has recaptured crucial locations in the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions, adjacent to Mogadishu. A recent bomb attack that targeted President Mohamud’s convoy highlights the group’s renewed threat in the capital. Somali officials reported that Al-Shabab has taken control of the town center in Masaajid Cali Gaduud just after the president’s visit aimed at combating the militants.
Residents in the area reported explosions and gunfire, indicating a significant setback for Somali forces and local militias who allegedly retreated. Analyst Matt Bryden remarked on the situation, stating that the government is losing strategic chokepoints, resulting in a disorganized military retreat. The government’s response includes mobilizing clan militias, police, and prison guards to bolster its military efforts.
President Mohamud has maintained a defiant stance, emphasizing the war’s continuation and the pursuit of victory. However, the government faces challenges due to a potential decline in international support, particularly as financial contributions from the United States remain uncertain. Historically, African Union forces have supported Somali stability since 2007, but recent changes in mission structure may impede this support.
Bryden expressed concerns regarding security assistance cuts and decreasing international engagement, which could favor Al-Shabab’s position. Nevertheless, some analysts, including Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group, argue that although Al-Shabab’s advances are concerning, they do not currently pose a significant threat to Mogadishu. He attributed the group’s resurgence to the government’s preoccupation with political issues, indicating that fragmentation in the country may have created an opportunity for Al-Shabab, albeit suggesting the conflict remains more of a stalemate rather than an imminent takeover.
In conclusion, Al-Shabab’s resurgence illustrates the fragile security landscape in Somalia, marked by significant territorial gains and threats to government leaders. Despite the Somali government’s efforts, including mobilizing local forces, the potential decrease in international support could exacerbate the situation. While some analysts believe the militia’s resurgence may not lead to an immediate crisis in Mogadishu, the ongoing internal divisions and political challenges warrant close monitoring of this pivotal conflict.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
