Al-Shabaab has shown signs of resurgence in Somalia after recent territorial gains and an assassination attempt on President Mohamud. With decreasing international support, experts express concern over the government’s ability to maintain control. Although some believe the capital remains secure, the ongoing political turmoil complicates the prospects for stability.
Concerns have escalated regarding the resurgence of Al-Shabaab jihadists in Somalia following recent strategic gains and an attempt to assassinate President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud during a bomb attack. The militia, which is affiliated with Al-Qaeda, had been on the defensive in the previous years, but analysts indicate that these advances may be reversing amidst waning support from the United States and the African Union, crucial allies in Somalia’s fight against terrorism.
Al-Shabaab has reasserted control in vital areas within Middle and Lower Shabelle, regions close to the capital, Mogadishu. Notably, shortly after the president’s visit to promote military action, the group captured a central town, Masaajid Cali Gaduud. Local residents reported heavy gunfire and explosions, indicating a significant shift in control as government forces and local militias retreated, creating a precarious security situation.
The analysis from Matt Bryden, a conflict expert, reveals troubling developments with the Somali government losing critical assets such as key bridges, leading to what he describes as “an army in disarray.” He noted that public confidence is dwindling concerning the government’s ability to secure Mogadishu from potential Al-Shabaab encirclement. Despite the critical situation, President Mohamud remains adamant in his resolve to continue the fight against Al-Shabaab, having established a temporary command in Cadale, north of the capital.
However, the Somali government faces mounting concerns over diminished international support. The African Union had provided substantial military backing since 2007, but recent changes, including the restructuring of support operations, signal potential cuts in financing from both the United States and Europe. Such financial constraints, according to Bryden, may shift the balance of power towards Al-Shabaab by mid-year.
Others argue that while Al-Shabaab’s movements are concerning, the capital remains secure for now. Analysts, including Omar Mahmood from the International Crisis Group, suggest that the government’s focus on political matters may have allowed Al-Shabaab to exploit local grievances more effectively. Mahmood emphasizes the complexity of the ongoing situation, suggesting it is closer to a stalemate than an imminent threat to Mogadishu, pointing out that the current political climate complicates the government’s ability to respond effectively.
In summary, the situation in Somalia has rapidly deteriorated with the resurgence of Al-Shabaab, culminating in the group’s recent territorial gains and threats to the capital. The retreat of government forces raises concerns about their effectiveness, particularly in light of reduced international support. Although some experts caution against overestimating the immediate threat to Mogadishu, the political instability and military challenges present a complex and challenging environment for securing peace in Somalia.
Original Source: www.france24.com
