The Assad regime’s apparent stability has been disrupted by a recent offensive from opposition forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, capturing significant territory in Syria. Key allies Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia have reduced their support due to internal and external pressures, raising questions about the regime’s long-term viability in the face of socio-economic challenges and continued conflict.
The veneer of Bashar al-Assad’s control over Syria has recently crumbled as the strategic alliances that once upheld his regime appear weakened. Despite the resurgence of his father Hafez al-Assad’s legacy and a semblance of stability since the onset of the civil war in 2011, critical shifts have unraveled this illusion. The recent offensive by opposition forces, particularly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra), has shocked observers as they swiftly captured strategic territories, including the ancient city of Aleppo.
Hezbollah, a significant ally in bolstering the regime, has redirected its focus towards the conflict with Israel, consequently withdrawing troops from Syria, thereby diminishing their support for Assad. Meanwhile, Russia’s current preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has diverted its military resources away from supporting the Syrian government, despite its critical intervention beginning in 2015. Iran, too, faces challenges, with its positions frequently targeted by Israeli airstrikes, raising doubts about its capacity to maintain support for Assad.
As the Assad regime celebrates its 53rd year of rule, marked by corruption and mismanagement, the socioeconomic conditions for the average Syrian have deteriorated catastrophically. The internal discontent, coupled with failing international support structures, underscores the fragility of the Assad dynasty amidst a backdrop of unceasing conflict. The stark reality remains: no regime, no matter how seemingly impervious, is everlasting.
The enduring power of the Assad regime in Syria has long been a topic of discussion, particularly since the Arab Spring ignited protests across the Middle East in 2011. Initially, the regime faced dire threats from a burgeoning opposition. However, with assistance from allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad was able to consolidate power, creating a false narrative of permanent stability. This narrative has now been challenged by recent developments indicating vulnerabilities within the regime and its allies.
In summary, the recent military advances by opposition forces signify a critical turning point in the Syrian conflict, revealing the declining influence of Assad’s traditional allies. The withdrawal of Hezbollah combatants and Russia’s shifted focus towards Ukraine, coupled with the enduring socio-economic plight of Syrians, illuminate the precarious state of the Assad regime. These developments serve as a potent reminder that no political dynasty can remain untouched by the passage of time or the winds of change.
Original Source: www.cnn.com
