The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has surprised Iranian authorities and exposed divisions within the Iranian establishment. Some factions criticize the government for inadequate support of Assad, while reformists view the situation as an opportunity to reconsider Iran’s foreign policy. Analysts suggest that these developments may weaken Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon, leading to increased scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has led to significant surprises and divisions within the Iranian establishment that previously backed him. Iranian authorities observed in astonishment as rebel forces swiftly surged across Syria, capturing key cities with minimal opposition. An anonymous Iranian establishment source revealed that Tehran had underestimated the Syrian army’s ability to withstand this onslaught. As Hezbollah fighters diverted to confront Israel in Lebanon, they left numerous checkpoints vulnerable, which were not promptly reoccupied by Syrian forces. One source lamented the lack of capabilities to counter Israeli air strikes, which had targeted Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria in the preceding months.
In the wake of Assad’s downfall, Iranian media shifted its portrayal of the rebels, labeling them as “armed groups,” a departure from previous terminology. Moreover, a release of assurances from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the principal rebel faction, indicated that vital Shia shrines in Syria would remain protected, aimed at appeasing the religious segment and establishment supporters in Iran.
Public sentiments in Iran reflect a stark divide. Conservative factions criticize the government for not taking stronger actions, asserting that the establishment had been misled into negotiating with Western powers and Erdogan’s administration over Assad’s fate. Such critics contend that Assad was integral to Iran’s strategy against extremist factions and Israel. Conversely, a considerable number of reformists view the situation as an opportunity to dismantle the “axis of resistance,” which they argue has only yielded strife and international sanctions. Some reformists advocate for a reevaluation of Iran’s foreign policy toward viewing Israel as a rival rather than an enemy.
Within the Iranian political sphere, there exists a minor schism among decision-makers regarding future strategies in Syria. Some advocate for engagement with HTS, seeking diplomatic avenues, while others push for the establishment of new proxy formations. After Assad’s fall, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed confidence that resistance movements would regain strength, declaring that regional adversaries are mistaken in assuming that the fall of Assad would diminish the Resistance Front.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also hinted at potential alignments with disgruntled regional players, suggesting that the political landscape in Syria allows for various opportunities. Additionally, an analyst emphasized that creating a Syrian resistance group defined by its opposition to Israeli influence is crucial for Iran’s broader strategy.
Analysts predict that as Iran faces a weakening position in Syria, these developments will impact its influence in Lebanon, creating further challenges. Observers anticipate that deteriorating conditions in Syria will soon lead to increased scrutiny and possibly confrontations regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Such scenarios, they suggest, could provide grounds for Iran’s leadership to reconsider its stance on developing nuclear capabilities, should they perceive it as a means of national defense against existential threats.
The article provides a detailed overview of the reaction and response of the Iranian establishment to the recent shift in power dynamics in Syria following the rapid advance of rebel groups against the Assad regime. Historically, Iran has invested heavily in supporting Assad due to strategic interests in maintaining regional influence and combating perceived threats from Israel and extremist factions. This recent upheaval has caused divisions within Iranian political factions, reflecting differing perspectives on foreign policy and strategic priorities. The way in which these factions interpret the developments in Syria will significantly impact Iran’s future actions in the region, especially regarding alliances and military strategies.
Recent developments in Syria have exposed fractures within the Iranian establishment, as differing factions grapple with the implications of Assad’s rapid decline. Some voice urgency for continued military engagement and alliances, while reformist perspectives suggest a strategic reevaluation could be beneficial. The outcome of this situation holds potential repercussions not only for Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon but also for Iran’s approach to its nuclear program amidst growing regional tensions and international scrutiny.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
