Above-normal rainfall is anticipated in the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, impacting regions such as Djibouti, Eritrea, and South Sudan. This period is crucial for annual rainfall, with potential flooding risks highlighted by Dr. Guleid Artan of ICPAC. The forecasts inform critical sectors and underscore the importance of regional climate collaborations.
A forecast of above-normal rainfall has been issued for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September, encompassing nations such as Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, significant portions of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This projection, provided by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a regional climate centre under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), highlights the critical role of this rainy season in the region’s climate system. During this period, the northern and western areas are expected to receive over 90% of their annual rainfall, while significant contributions will also be observed in the southern parts, accounting for approximately 40%. The forecast aligns with historical patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, presenting potential flooding risks, particularly for South Sudan and Sudan, as noted by Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC. Additionally, several countries that recently experienced severe flooding are now transitioning into a dry season during these months, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, along with various regions in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda. Such seasonal climate outlooks are paramount for sectors including agriculture, health, and water management, as they inform decision-making processes. The WMO community utilizes these forecasts as part of their broader initiative, Early Warnings for All, aimed at enhancing resilience across vulnerable regions. The forecast was unveiled at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which serves as a collaborative platform for climate scientists, government representatives, non-governmental organizations, and various climate-sensitive sectors. Over the past two decades, the WMO has actively supported such regional forums, providing essential climate forecasts and information that contribute to safeguarding lives and livelihoods, particularly in agriculture, food security, water resource management, health care, and disaster risk reduction. ICPAC has adhered to the WMO’s guidelines by employing an objective seasonal forecasting methodology, utilizing initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and refining them through three calibration techniques. An early to normal onset of rainfall is anticipated in areas such as central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. However, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti and certain parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, as well as central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. Forecasts also indicate a tendency towards warmer-than-normal temperatures across the region, particularly affecting northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The Greater Horn of Africa is a region notably affected by climate variability and extremes, with its climate being significantly influenced by seasonal rainfall patterns. The rainy seasons in this region, particularly from June to September, are vital as they largely determine agricultural productivity and water availability, impacting the livelihoods of millions. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) plays a crucial role in generating climate forecasts that inform various sectors on potential impacts. Historical data from past years, such as 1998 and 2010, reveal the susceptibility of the region to flooding during periods of above-normal rainfall, highlighting the importance of accurate forecasting and timely warnings to mitigate disaster risks.
In summary, the forthcoming season from June to September is projected to bring above-normal rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, which could result in significant flooding risks, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan. These climatic predictions are critical for effective decision-making in sectors reliant on weather patterns, such as agriculture and water management. The collaborative efforts of ICPAC and the WMO in providing actionable forecasts reflect a commitment to enhancing resilience and adaptive capacities in the face of climate change.
Original Source: wmo.int
