Sudan faces a looming de facto partition due to ongoing conflicts between the army and RSF, particularly as the RSF entrenches itself in Darfur while the army consolidates control elsewhere. Analysts warn of increased localized conflicts and complications in achieving peace. The humanitarian crisis has escalated dramatically since fighting began in April 2023, raising concerns about the future viability of the state.
Sudan is on the precipice of a de facto partition primarily between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which could lead to significant disintegration of the state. With ongoing conflict since April 2023, the RSF remains firmly entrenched in the western region of Darfur, while the army asserts control in many other areas. Analysts caution that a formal division may trigger a surge in local conflicts and diminish the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement. Furthermore, the RSF’s struggle to recruit outside of Darfur underscores its dependency on historical strongholds, complicating its efforts to maintain control. The conflict has resulted in staggering humanitarian crises, with countless lives lost and millions displaced, necessitating urgent international attention.
The conflict in Sudan that erupted nearly two years ago centers on a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF, stemming from deep-rooted political and ethnic tensions exacerbated by the legacy of the Darfur War. The RSF, with origins in the Janjaweed militias, has realized substantial territorial control within Darfur, while the Sudanese army seeks to reclaim significant urban areas such as Wad Madani. The escalation of the war has provoked interventions from foreign states, further complicating the local dynamics, as groups vie for power and resources in a rapidly evolving and volatile situation.
The potential partition of Sudan represents a critical moment in the nation’s tumultuous history, raising concerns about the lasting implications for peace, stability, and governance in the region. As conflict continues to ravage the nation, the intricate interplay of military forces, local militias, and international influences may ultimately dictate the path forward for Sudan, underscoring the urgent need for a cohesive peace strategy. The scenario presents a dire possibility of total state collapse if current trajectories remain unaltered.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
