Forecasters are tracking a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic with a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression by week’s end. It may affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, while another disturbance near Central America shows lower formation potential.
Meteorologists are monitoring developments that suggest a potential storm may impact the Caribbean later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of Tuesday morning, they reported a 60% likelihood that a tropical disturbance currently located in the Atlantic could intensify into a tropical depression within the next seven days, with a 30% chance for such a development over the next two days. This marks an increase from previous assessments. The disruption is characterized as a loosely organized aggregation of thunderstorms, maintaining a defined rotational pattern at its center. To escalate to a tropical depression and potentially transition into a tropical storm or hurricane, the system requires additional rainfall accumulation. At present, the disturbance is situated within a dry atmospheric zone, complicating any significant development. Forecasts indicate the system is expected to continue moving westward, where it may encounter moister air, thereby increasing its chances of sustained development. The disturbance is anticipated to reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday or Friday. Global meteorological models currently present divergent trajectories for the system, with some projecting a westward path towards Cuba while others suggest a more northeastern direction, potentially towards Florida or the Bahamas. However, experts caution that predictions at this stage are limited in reliability since the disturbance has yet to be classified as a tropical depression. Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel noted, “Many questions remain on both intensity and track.” Additionally, the Hurricane Center is monitoring another disturbance located off the coast of Central America. The likelihood of this system forming into a tropical depression is considerably lower, estimated at 30% over the next week, with no immediate chance in the next 48 hours. While there remains a possibility for it to strengthen, most computer models indicate a trajectory that would see it move back towards Central America. Despite the limited chances of development, significant rainfall is anticipated in parts of Central America later this week, as stated by the hurricane center.
The National Hurricane Center plays a pivotal role in tracking and forecasting tropical weather systems in the Atlantic region. By monitoring various disturbances, forecasters provide essential information on potential storm development, which is critical for preparedness and response efforts in affected areas. This particular disturbance highlights the inherent unpredictability of tropical weather systems, as well as the importance of utilizing advanced modeling and observational data to improve forecast accuracy.
In summary, forecasters are closely observing a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic that has an increasing probability of developing into a storm as it moves towards the Caribbean. While the potential for a tropical depression remains under consideration, the accompanying uncertainties around its trajectory and intensity necessitate ongoing monitoring. Additionally, a second disturbance near Central America poses lower chances for development but may still generate heavy rainfall in the region.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
