A new attribution study indicates that climate change has led to a greater than 15 percent increase in global burnt area from 2003 to 2019. This rise is primarily attributed to drier and warmer weather patterns, with notable increases in regions such as Australia, South America, and Siberia. While human influences have contributed to a reduction in global burnt area, the accelerating impacts of climate change raise concerns for future fire management and ecosystem health.
A recent attribution study reveals that climate change has likely caused an increase of over 15 percent in global burnt area attributable to wildfires from 2003 to 2019. Researchers found that year on year, the contribution of climate change to burnt area has escalated by 0.22 percent globally, with central Australia experiencing the most significant rise. Chantelle Burton, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre and one of the lead authors, emphasized that the influence of climate change is becoming increasingly vital in the occurrence of fires in the context of drier and warmer weather conditions. The study aimed to quantify the extent to which climate change impacts global wildfires, addressing a gap identified in previous research, which had not fully calculated climate change’s overall contribution to global fire regimes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) has pointed out that anthropogenic climate change has “likely increased fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents.” However, contrasting studies have indicated a decrease in the global total burnt area, particularly in savanna regions, attributed to land-use changes due to agricultural expansion. The researchers utilized global fire-vegetation models to analyze the influence of climate change and socio-economic factors on the burnt area across various regions. Their findings indicated that the global burnt area had increased by 15.8 percent in the presence of climate change during the period from 2003 to 2019. Key fire-prone regions identified included Australia, South America, Western North America, and Siberia, which exhibited substantial increases in burnt area attributed to climate change. Specifically, northern Australia experienced a surge of 22 percent, southeastern South America by 30 percent, west Siberia by 18 percent, and western North America by 15 percent due to the influences of climate change. Researchers warned that these regions, characterized by low population densities and inadequate adaptation to fire, are particularly vulnerable to larger fires as warmer and drier weather patterns become more common. Conversely, in densely populated locations, enhanced firefighting initiatives may mitigate the formation of larger wildfires. In Africa, the increments in burnt area linked to climate change reached 20.3 percent in central Africa, 2.7 percent in western Africa, and 12.4 percent in northeastern Africa. The study reported notable climate change-induced burnt area increases across 35 of the 43 IPCC regions, with 13 regions observing an annual increase exceeding 0.5 percent from 1980 to 2019. While human activities have also played a role in reducing the global burnt area by approximately 19 percent, the comprehensive conclusion of the study indicates a net reduction of about 5 percent, suggesting that the impacts of human actions currently outweigh those of climate change. However, it was noted that the adverse effects of climate change are accelerating at a rate of 0.2 percent per year, implying that this balance may soon shift in the future.
The impact of climate change on global fire patterns has gained increasing attention in scientific research, particularly in light of rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This study builds on existing literature by aiming to quantify the extent of climate change’s contribution to burnt areas globally and regionally. Previous research has acknowledged climate change’s influence on wildfires; however, there has been a lack of investigation into quantifying this impact. As wildfires have significant implications for ecosystems, human safety, and climate dynamics, understanding the extent of climate change’s role in these events is vital for informing policy and management strategies.
In conclusion, the latest attribution study highlights a concerning trend: climate change has markedly contributed to an increase in global burnt areas, with a quantified rise of over 15 percent between 2003 and 2019. Notably, regions such as central Australia and parts of South America are increasingly susceptible to larger wildfires as climate conditions evolve. While current human activities have been effective in reducing burnt areas, the study warns that the intensifying effects of climate change, increasing by 0.2 percent annually, may soon alter this dynamic, emphasizing the need for urgent and robust climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
