The Horn of Africa faces a looming conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with Tigray as the potential battleground. The fragile peace established by the COHA in November 2022 is threatened by escalating tensions and nationalist rhetoric. Urgent international diplomatic intervention is required to mitigate the crisis and prevent a repeat of historical conflicts.
The Horn of Africa is facing an imminent threat of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly in the Tigray region, which has endured immense suffering due to previous wars. Following the signing of the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in November 2022, a fragile peace was established after years of devastating conflict. However, recent developments have jeopardized this hard-won peace, necessitating urgent international intervention, particularly from the United States and the European Union, to counteract escalating tensions.
The COHA marked a significant turning point, emerging after Ethiopian forces, despite nearing Tigray’s capital, faced severe resistance from the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Diplomatic pressure led to a recognition by the Ethiopian government that military solutions were unviable. However, the current atmosphere of renewed hostilities signals a dangerous shift in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Key unresolved issues remain, such as the reluctant acknowledgment of the TPLF as a registered political entity and the restoration of territories seized during the conflict.
Amidst Eritrea’s historical isolation and authoritarian governance, the risk of rekindled conflict is heightened. The socioeconomic ruin left by the Tigray war, coupled with ongoing clashes in the Amhara and Oromia regions, suggests a precarious stance for Ethiopia, further complicating the region’s stability. As tensions rise, concerns grow that Tigray could once again become a battleground.
The aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement has seen tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate due to conflicting interests. Eritrea’s leadership and the Amhara Fano militias are adamantly opposed to any TPLF survival, fueling a narrative of destruction rather than reconciliation. Prime Minister Abiy’s assertion about Ethiopia’s need for port access has further strained relations, with Eritrea aligning with regional adversaries, including Egypt.
Recent developments, such as the signing of the Ankara Accord in December 2024, have fortified Ethiopia’s isolation from crucial maritime access, aggravating nationalistic sentiments. A rapid deterioration in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea has ensued, culminating in military escalations and national mobilizations on both sides. Ethiopia’s state media has ignited fears of a renewed Tigray war, intensifying wartime rhetoric amidst nationalistic ambitions.
Emphasizing vested interests, high-ranking Ethiopian officials have publicly implied a need for military action against Eritrea, presenting an adversarial narrative against perceived TPLF collusion with Eritrea. Despite these claims, there remains no concrete evidence of cooperation, revealing potential attempts to instigate further strife. The acknowledgment of Eritrean troops on Ethiopian soil should ideally serve as a beneficial acknowledgment; however, it seems instead to legitimize aggression towards Eritrea.
Tigray is currently in a precarious position, caught between the rivalries of Ethiopian and Eritrean ambitions. The federal government’s refusal to recognize TPLF’s political legitimacy and restore Tigray’s territorial integrity is deepening mistrust. Internal divisions are surfacing, indicated by growing opposition from TDF commanders against the interim administration, threatening the fragile peace.
The Ethiopian administration’s current strategy mirrors tactics seen before the onset of the 2020 Tigray conflict, politicizing state involvement to marginalize the TPLF. The earlier Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Abiy Ahmed has ultimately devolved into an avenue for further conflicts rather than peace, leading to fears of a repeat of historical errors.
The prospect of renewed warfare in Tigray carries catastrophic consequences, transcending national borders and threatening the wider region with instability and extremism. The international community must advocate for de-escalation amongst Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray to halt the impending crisis. The lessons of previous conflicts must guide this diplomatic engagement to prevent another tragedy from unfolding in the Horn of Africa.
In summary, the Horn of Africa is on the brink of potential conflict due to rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, especially in Tigray. The fragile peace established by the COHA is under threat as nationalist rhetoric and military mobilizations increase. Key unresolved political issues and escalating hostilities necessitate immediate diplomatic intervention from the international community to prevent a return to violence. A renewed conflict would not only devastate the region but also create pathways for extremist groups, making swift action imperative to maintain stability.
Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com
