Argentina’s inflation is projected to rise in March, following a February IPC of 2.4%. Analysts predict it may exceed February’s 2.9% core inflation. Despite the administration’s claims, consumption has dropped significantly. Rising costs in housing and food drive inflation, while Buenos Aires faces higher year-on-year figures amid increasing unemployment.
Argentina is facing a projected rebound in inflation for March following the National Consumer Price Index (IPC) reaching 2.4% in February. Analysts in Buenos Aires anticipate an acceleration, potentially surpassing February’s core inflation rate of 2.9%. Despite claims of progress by President Javier Milei’s administration, experts highlight this decrease occurred alongside a 10.2% drop in mass consumption last month.
Seasonal factors including the school year’s onset and rising transport costs are exerting additional price pressures. Economists point to ongoing currency uncertainties and necessary economic adjustments as further inflationary challenges. Consumption across the country has seen a decline for 15 consecutive months, with significant drops in various categories, including soft drinks and household items.
Data shows a 9.8% year-on-year contraction in February 2025, alongside substantial declines in supermarket sales, although the rate of decline has moderated since October 2024. The basic food basket (CBA) rose 3.2% in February, its highest increase in six months, while the poverty-line basket increased by 2.3%. This translates to a typical family requiring AR$ 1,057,923 (approximately US$ 881.6) monthly to escape poverty and AR$ 468,108 (around US$ 309) to avoid indigence, indicating persistent economic adversity.
The Indec reported an inflation increase to 2.4% in February, up from 2.2% in January, resulting in a cumulative rise of 66.9% over the past year, with year-to-date price increases of 4.6%. Significant contributors to these increases included Housing, Water, and Energy (3.7%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (3.2%), primarily due to rising meat prices. In contrast, Household Equipment saw only a 1% rise while Clothing and Footwear saw a minimal 0.4% increase.
Regional inflation variations were notable, with Patagonia at 3.2%, Cuyo at 2.7%, Northwest at 2.6%, and Pampas at 2.5%, while Greater Buenos Aires (2.2%) and Northeast (1.9%) fell below the national average. Interestingly, Buenos Aires City saw inflation drop to 2.1%, driven by a 4.8% decrease in tourism-related services, yet recorded a higher year-on-year inflation rate of 79.4% and a significant unemployment rise of 50% over the past year. The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has revised its inflation predictions to 2.3% for February and 2.2% for March, indicating a departure from earlier downward trends.
In conclusion, Argentina is experiencing a troubling resurgence in inflation projected for March, with contributing factors including seasonal pressures, currency uncertainties, and a notable decline in consumption. Basic necessities continue to rise in cost, exacerbated by increased housing and food prices. Despite administrative reassurances, the fiscal environment reveals deep economic challenges, especially in urban areas like Buenos Aires where unemployment has spiked and year-on-year inflation is significantly higher. The Central Bank’s revised forecasts signal prevailing inflationary trends that require close monitoring.
Original Source: en.mercopress.com
